Cover image for No immediate danger : carbon ideologies  / William T. Vollmann.
No immediate danger : carbon ideologies / William T. Vollmann.
Publication Information:
New York, New York : Viking, [2018]

Physical Description:
xx, 601 pages : illustrations, maps ; 25 cm.
The first volume in a timely series about climate change and energy generation focuses on the consequences of nuclear-power production through the events and aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011.


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1 Bob Harkins Branch 363.17990952117 VOL Book Adult General Collection

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A timely, eye-opening book about climate change and energy generation that focuses on the consequences of nuclear power production, from award-winning author William T. Vollmann

In his nonfiction, William T. Vollmann has won acclaim as a singular voice tackling some of the most important issues of our age, from poverty to violence to the dark soul of American imperialism as it has played out on the U.S./Mexico border. Now, Vollmann turns to a topic that will define the generations to come--the factors and human actions that have led to global warming. Vollmann begins No Immediate Danger , the first volume of Carbon Ideologies , by examining and quantifying the many causes of climate change, from industrial manufacturing and agricultural practices to fossil fuel extraction, economic demand for electric power, and the justifiable yearning of people all over the world to live in comfort. Turning to nuclear power first, Vollmann then recounts multiple visits that he made at significant personal risk over the course of seven years to the contaminated no-go zones and sad ghost towns of Fukushima, Japan, beginning shortly after the tsunami and reactor meltdowns of 2011. Equipped first only with a dosimeter and then with a scintillation counter, he measured radiation and interviewed tsunami victims, nuclear evacuees, anti-nuclear organizers and pro-nuclear utility workers.

Featuring Vollmann's signature wide learning, sardonic wit, and encyclopedic research, No Immediate Danger , whose title co-opts the reassuring mantra of official Japanese energy experts, builds up a powerful, sobering picture of the ongoing nightmare of Fukushima.

Watch for No Good Alternative , the second volume of Carbon Ideologies , focusing on human experiences related to coal mining and oil and natural gas production - coming in June 2018.

Author Notes

William T. Vollmann is the author of ten novels, including Europe Central , which won the National Book Award. He has also written four collections of stories, including The Atlas , which won the PEN Center USA West Award for Fiction, a memoir, and six works of nonfiction, including Rising Up and Rising Down and Imperial , both of which were finalists for the National Book Critics Circle Award. He is the recipient of a Whiting Writers Award and the Strauss Living Award from the American Academy of Arts and Letters. His journalism and fiction have been published in The New Yorker, Harpers, Esquire, Granta , and many other publications.

Reviews 1

Publisher's Weekly Review

Fossil fuels and nuclear power pose equally apocalyptic threats, according to this fact-strewn, muddled opening volume of a massive two-volume cri de coeur on energy. Addressing an imagined reader of the future, when climate change has made the earth a scorched wasteland, novelist and journalist Vollmann (Uncentering the Earth) opens with a guilt-stricken primer on mankind's heedless production of greenhouse gases-then proceeds to attack nuclear power, one of the largest sources of low-carbon energy. Much of the book covers his travels in Japan, where he roamed the environs of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011 taking readings with a radiation meter, talking to locals, and shuddering at desolate vistas of evacuated towns-the fruit, he contends, of a callous "nuclear ideology" that saddles humanity with poisoned landscapes. Vollmann's critique doesn't quite make a coherent case that Fukushima's spew will have significant health effects (the scientific consensus says otherwise); instead he veers between sarcastic jibes-"unlike its three main rival fuels, nuclear could be fun!"-and alarmism about "gamma rays stabbing through me." Nuclear power and energy policy deserve a more thoughtful, less biased exploration than Vollmann gives them. Photos. (Apr.) © Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.



When We Kept the Lights On We all have in us the ghosts of long-vanished things, of fallen cities and marvelous machines. Gene Wolfe, 1982 Someday, perhaps not long from now, the inhabitants of a hotter, more dangerous and biologically diminished planet than the one on which I lived may wonder what you and I were thinking, or whether we thought at all. This book is for them. When I read another embrittled document predicting the disappearance of bison from the American Plains, my melancholy is untainted by urgency. Captive bison do survive, but the great herds have been gone since 1884. And as I write this book about coal, oil, natural gas and atomic power, I do my best to look as will the future upon the world in which I lived--namely, as surely, safely vanished. Nothing can be done to save it; therefore, nothing need be done. Hence this little book scrapes by without offering solutions. There were none; we had none. All the same, it may not be uninteresting to learn what went on in the minds of buffalo hunters, Indian killers, coal miners, freeway drivers, homeowners and nuclear engineers. In the time when I lived, it was still possible to meet Americans who disbelieved in global warming, although the ones I knew became shyer and rarer in about 2013. In 2016, they helped elect Donald Trump President, upon which their various carbon ideologies naturally came roaring back. "We sure need a good Sierra snowpack this year," said a contractor friend of mine. "Skiing was lousy last year and the year before. If we can only get some snow, that will make those global warming people shut up."--That was just before Christmas. Come spring, the snowpack was 6% of what we had been calling normal. But why not call California a special case? Up in Washington the snowpack was a full 16% of what it should have been; and by May, "seeing things happen at this time of year we just have never seen before," Governor Inslee declared a "statewide drought emergency."--Fortunately,my contractor friend was vindicated, and those global warming people utterly foiled, for after a long dry year, the subsequent winter blew flurry-rich,and by January the Sierra snow level had reached 115%! February turned unseasonably warm. The leftwing hoaxers got impudent again. As for the skeptics, they took strength in the fact that carbon forecasters of other stripes had been wrong before, in token of which I quote from my grandfather's Mechanical Engineers' Handbook , copyright 1958: Petroleum would soon run out! The peak of production in the United States should come about 1965 . . . World shortage of petroleum may be expected to begin about 1960 .-- If only!-- As for coal, in predicting that American production would reach its height in about 1975 the Handbook was not far wrong, but it anticipated that a world shortage of total world fossil fuels . . . would be noticeable around that same year, which is precisely when a build-your-own-alternative-style-house primer warned us all: A Federal Power Commission staff study, released in January of 1975, concluded that natural gas production from the forty-eight contiguous states has reached its peak and will decline for the indefinite future .--We were all on theverge of getting cold!--But in 1993 the National Coal Association announced that "at present rates of use" our coal reserves can be expected to last nearly 250 years. There are about 1,000 tons of recoverable coal for every man, woman and child in the United States. Then came fracking, which afforded gas enough to toast us in our planetary oven. In each of these dull and distant comedies, we got condemned to future deprivation, and then the diagnosis brightened! (I myself got cynical; I didn't care; I chalked it up to financial manipulation.) In 1999 my atlas advised me that oil might last another 40 years if we were lucky. And in 2015, as I sat beside the automatic gas fire, writing Carbon Ideologies , Iran announced intentions to increase her gas output by 40% in the next five years, while coal prices fell farther; oil prices had just decreased again: There remained enough fossil fuels to choke us all! So why not deal sharply with pessimists, or refrain from dealing with them at all? Mr. Jonathan Lee, whose company rented out supertankers, felt as excited as a rookie because you are seeing history change before your eyes! China and India meanwhile began seizing a bargain opportunity to top off their petroleum reserves . The prior errors of prophecy proved that no one knew anything about anything; therefore, climate change was the merest hot air. Not far from the disbelievers dwelled those who couldn't be bothered about "an ecosystem somewhere." In 2016 a kindly barber told me: "I don't really think none about it, although I have to say that when I see people pick up cigarette butts from the sidewalk I appreciate their caring, and people that care about the earth, I mean, that's nice, and when I think about the polar bears losing their land, I do feel touched about that, because I care a lot about animals." For him, an ecosystem was something to watch on television while he ate takeout pizza. He was a decent fellow who had never been consulted by the carbon vendors--whose systems of extraction and delivery had long since become invisibly ubiquitous. In 2014 my friend Philip, a cheerful, hardworking realtor in his early 40s, allowed that global warming might exist, but that it was natural and "evolutionary"; the human race had little to do with it. For years we had drunk together and listened to each other, so I asked him to tell me more. "Why should I concentrateon anything that stresses me out?" he demanded, and when I saw that the subject might dent his cheerfulness, I changed it. Kindred sorts reassured me that our new weather was "natural" and cyclical,and therefore required no action. Indeed, precious little action was taken. For more than 40 years, Homer City Generating Station in Pennsylvania has spewed sulfur dioxide from two of its three units completely unchecked ,. . . because it is largely exempt from federal air pollution laws. . . Last year, the facility released 114,245 tons of sulfur dioxide, more than all of the power plants in neighboring New York combined . This pollutant was both a killer of many organisms and a dangerous "precursor" gas with unpredictable effects on the climate. In 2011,the Environmental Protection Agency finally demanded that Homer City cleanup. After threatening immediate and devastating consequences and losing a lawsuit,the utility found a way to comply--without even raising its electricity rates. When I read this tale in the newspaper, my first emotion was happy astonishment that mitigation had proved so practicable--after which I felt all the more amazed that Big Coal kept digging in its heels against reducing harmful emissions elsewhere--and was allowed to do so--while Big Oil and Big Frack behaved much the same. (As for Big Nuke, its mantra, as we shall see, was: No immediate danger .)-- In 2017, a fellow who had repeatedly sued the EPA was appointed to run the agency. Well, after all, who gave a damn about some old ecosystem somewhere? (A newspaper item: Pounded Again, Coastal Town May Consider a Retreat . Just repairing and repairing the sea walls--it isn't a permanent solution with the ocean coming ever closer to us . Those words used to be exotic, back when I was alive.) Who could say whether somewhere might be here? That ecosystem's peculiarities had always lain beyond our ken. Although odorless methane might be accompanied by the scent of crude oil, and while carbon dioxide, that colorless gas with a faintly pungent odor and acid taste , sometimes heralded itself in jet trails and smokestack-clouds, both of these quickly vanished into our all-accepting sky. Then what? As a West Virginian pastor told me (you will meet him in the coal section): "Here you do see the smokestacks and you know that they do put off the smoke and everything, but it seems to me that the earth is so large and there are so many trees and everything that how could manmade equipment put up enough smoke to make a difference?" His question was absolutely reasonable. Answering it would have required the help of scientists, instruments and historical records. Even then, causation could never be proved. All one might hope to establish was plausible correlation with predictive value. Most of us were non-correlators; to us the clashing claims felt wearisome, complicated, inscrutable. It took me all my life merely to understand aspects of myself--and why shouldn't the latest scaremongers be as wrong as the Cassandras of  "peak oil"? In Bangladesh I met coal mine workers and even a labor union leader who had never heard of global warming; of course they asserted that there was "no alternative" to coal extraction. Indeed, they proved their own point. I remember another courteous old West Virginian who had just been speaking cogently about his childhood, his coal miner father and the decline of coal extraction in Appalachia; he grew vaguer when I requested his views on climate change: "I'm sure it's got something to do with the situation on TV"--meaning that he had seen television footage of weather-related disasters, and supposed that global warming might be part of the cause. "That's part of the pollution problem," he allowed. Then he added, and I failed to follow his logic, "That's why the EPA is doing what they are, stepping beyond their authority, I think, in a lotof ways." "Do you think coal contributes to global warming?" He reassured me: "They've got technology now that can cut all the pollution out." Had it only been so!-- In fact it was so a little bit , as Homer City unwillingly proved--but our captains of fuel and electricity resisted even that little for all they were worth, which was plenty. Anyhow, that good old man, who cannot be faulted for the incompleteness of his knowledge on greenhouse gases; and the disdainers of somewhere-nowhere ecosystems, the gloom-and-doom handwringers like me, the climate change deniers and the consoling weather-cycle asserters, we were all outnumbered by ordinary practical folks for whom cheap energy and a paycheck incarnated all relevance. One fellow wrote in to the newspaper: My son works in the coalfields ofsouthern West Virginia[;] he supports my two grandchildren by mining the coal that keeps the lights on in America --this last phrase being often used by my nation's carbon ideologues. So I know first hand the importance of winning the war on coal that Obama declared five years ago . Whether it was truly Obama who started it, who our enemy was, and whether America's lights might beneficially be dimmed here and there, failed to encumber him. The maintenance of his two grandchildren trumped other arguments; their needs caused him to know firsthand the small selfish thing that he knew. I will not celebrate him, but I decline to blame him, either. Why should his kin go hungry? (You in our future can go hungry instead; after all, we don't even know you.) In The Wall Street Journal 's "Notable & Quotable" section, a so‑called "environmental writer" enlarged his argument into a carbon eulogy: In 1971 China derived 40 percent of its energy from renewables. Since then, it has powered its incredible growth almost exclusively on heavily polluting coal, lifting a historic 680 million people out of poverty. . . A recent analysis from the Centre for Global Development shows that $10 billion invested in such renewables [as solar energy] would help lift 20 million people in Africa out of poverty. It sounds impressive, until you learn that if this sum was spent on gas electrification it would lift 90 million people out of poverty. So in choosing to spend that $10 billion on renewables, we deliberately end up choosing to leave more than 70 million people in darkness and poverty. In other words, back when I lived, some of us believed that heavily polluting coal could somehow lift people out of poverty without impoverishing us in anymore fundamental way. We believed that because it was convenient to believe it. So we kept the lights on. Excerpted from No Immediate Danger: Volume One of Carbon Ideologies by William T. Vollmann All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.

Table of Contents

List of Maps and Illustrationsp. xvi
0 When We Kept the Lights Onp. 1
About * the "Primer" Sectionp. 17
About Tablesp. 19
About Photographsp. 20
What Was the Work For?p. 25
Power Wastage by Group-Driven Machine Tools, ca. 1945p. 32
About Wastep. 33
Power Wastage During Machining Operations at an Unspecified Toyota Factory, ca. 2000p. 38
Power Wastage by Devices in Standby Mode, 2000-2010p. 41
About Demandp. 42
What Was the Work For? (continued)p. 44
Ratios of Per Capita Power Consumption to Per Capita Gross Domestic Productp. 51
Comparative Energy Requirements, in multiples of 1 British Thermal Unit Ip. 55
About Powerp. 60
Per Capita Power Consumption, ca. 1925 and ca. 2014, in multiples of the 1925 Japanese averagep. 63
Comparative Power Requirements and Energy Usages, in multiples of what was needed per minute ca. 1975 to operate a plug-in vibratorp. 67
What Was the Work For? (continued)p. 76
Energy Required to Move an American Car One Mile, 1949 and 2010p. 76
Carbon Ideologies Approachedp. 79
About Datap. 89
About Data Suppressionp. 91
About Disbeliefp. 93
"Consider It Good Fortune"p. 96
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in Our Atmosphere, as Recorded at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, 1959 and 2004, in multiples of the 1959 valuep. 96
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion, World and Selected Countries, 1971 and 2004, in multiples of the U.S. percentage increase over that periodp. 98
Carbon Ideologies Definedp. 104
About Carbonp. 106
About Agriculturep. 111
The Three Most Dangerous Greenhouse Gases as of 2011, their percentage increases since 1750 and their percentages of total national emissionsp. 120
About Industrial Chemicalsp. 124
The Parable of Adipic Acidp. 128
About Manufacturingp. 132
Energy and Coal Requirements to Manufacture One Pound Each of the "Big Five" Materials, ca. 2013, in multiples of the energy needed for cementp. 134
About Transportationp. 143
The Three Most Dangerous Sectors of Human Activity, 2012-14p. 144
Maximum-Range Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Selected Aircraft, in multiples of the "Pampa" Argentine attack jet's (2003)p. 148
About Power Plantsp. 150
Innate Energies versus Actual Electric Power Generated: Oil, Coal and Natural Gas, in multiples of the energy loss for oil (U.S.A., 2014)p. 152
Comparative Power Efficiencies, in multiples of lowest gas-turbine efficiency as of 1957p. 155
Power and Climatep. 158
Power Generation's Share of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Selected Countries, 2007-14, in multiples of the 2012 European Union valuep. 158
Primary Greenhouse Gas and Precursor Emissions from American Power Generation, 2014, in multiples of the value for nitrous oxidep. 159
About Solar Energyp. 161
Solar Energy En Route to Earth's Surface, by seasonal angular alterations and by atmospheric absorption and refraction, ca. 1957, 1976p. 161
About Greenhouse Gasesp. 170
Comparative Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Power Plants, 2014, in multiples of those released by natural gas facilitiesp. 170
Comparative One-Century Global Warming Potentials, in multiples of carbon dioxide'sp. 176
Comparative Responsibilities for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2007, in multiples of the figure for food productionp. 188
About Fuelsp. 189
Average Fuel Consumption in Moving One American Electric Light Rail Car One Mile, ca. 1979, in multiples of pounds of gasoline requiredp. 192
Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Common Fuels, in multiples of natural gas's (2007)p. 199
Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Common Fuels, in multiples of lignite'sp. 200
Criticisms of Common Fuels, 1980-2012p. 205
Comparative Calorific Efficiencies, in multiples of the thermal energy of blast furnace gasp. 208
Nuclear Ideologyp. 221
About Uraniump. 228
Calorific Efficiencies of Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium-235 and Plutonium-239, in multiples of the thermal energy of coalp. 234
About Nuclear Reactorsp. 236
1 Lower than for Real Estate Agentsp. 241
Comparative Measured Radiation Levels, 2014-15 (with Hiroshima readings from 2017), in multiples of lowest Sacramento interior readingp. 244
March 2011: When the Wind Blows from the South (Fukushima)p. 257
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels: Japan, U.S. and World, 1980 and 2011, in multiples of the 1980 Japanese valuep. 275
February 2014: Harmful Rumors (Fukushima)322
Relative Strontium-90 Concentrations in Perch Lake (Canada), 1963p. 342
October 2014, with a Hanford Excursion in August 2015: The Red Zones (Hanford, Washington; Fukushima)p. 396
Lowest and Highest Measured One-Minute Average Radioactivities in Selected Safe Cities, 2014-15p. 410
Concentrations of Radioactive Phosphorus at Hanford Nuclear Site, 1954-58p. 417
Other Concentration Factors at Hanford, 1954-58p. 417
Measured Radioactivities of Selected Drainpipes and Sewer Gratings, 2014-15p. 419
Comparative Average Radiation Levels, 2014, in multiples of the Sacramento averagep. 425
Cesium Concentrations in Iitate Mushrooms, 2014p. 442
Cesium-137 Released in the World's Two Worst Nuclear Disastersp. 469
How Radioactive Was It? or, Extracts from an Official Websitep. 487
Normalization on the Rocksp. 499
Lowest and Highest Radiation Measurements in Selected Red Zone Cities, 2014p. 502
Their Standard Is as Arbitrary as Ours: Some allowable cesium concentrations in food, Ukraine and Japanp. 506
Postscript: Japan Sees the Lightp. 513
Global Distribution of Nuclear Reactors in 2014, with added statisticsp. 513
Definitions, Units and Conversionsp. 517
Table 1: Commonly Mentioned Radiocontaminants in Fukushimap. 537
Table 2: Other Isotopes of Interestp. 539
Radioactivity of Selected Library Interiors, 2014-15p. 542
Dosimeter and Frisker Readings at Various Dental X-Ray Settings, 2015p. 552
Multiples of Outdoor Background Level at Dentist's Office, 2015p. 553
Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Various Fuels When Producing 2013 American Winter Peak Electrical Load Capacity, in multiples of natural gas'sp. 598
Acknowledgmentsp. 601

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